By Stephen Simon
Nigeria’s Dangote Refinery is preparing for what could become Africa’s biggest initial public offering, with the company targeting about $5 billion when it lists in October 2026.
The 650,000-barrel-per-day refinery has attracted strong investor interest following months of improved earnings and growing demand for petroleum products in Nigeria and across the region.
The refinery, which reached its initial capacity in February and has tested production of about 700,000 barrels per day, is planning to double its capacity within the next three years, according to Reuters.
However, ahead of the proposed listing, investors are closely watching the company’s access to crude oil, particularly the availability and cost of Nigerian crude.
Despite its location in Nigeria, the refinery currently imports between 30 and 40 per cent of its crude feedstock, including supplies of US WTI Midland crude, because of difficulties securing sufficient domestic crude.
The situation has raised questions about how efficiently Nigeria can supply its largest refinery with locally produced crude, particularly as existing oil-backed loans and pre-export arrangements restrict some domestic supplies.
Industry regulators are working on mechanisms that could improve access to Nigerian crude, including a proposed crude-swap arrangement that would allow domestic refiners to obtain more locally produced oil.
The development is significant for Nigeria because the Dangote Refinery has become an important part of the country’s ambition to reduce dependence on imported refined petroleum products while increasing its role as a regional fuel supplier.
The refinery’s proposed IPO will therefore be watched closely by international investors, not only because of its potential record size but also because its performance could influence perceptions about Nigeria’s energy sector and its ability to support large-scale industrial investment.
