By Stephen Simon
Nigeria’s economic outlook remains positive, with steady oil production, improved macroeconomic stability, recovering private-sector activity and ongoing reforms supporting economic growth, the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has said.
In its latest assessment of the Nigerian economy, contained in its August Monthly Oil Market Report, OPEC said Nigeria’s economy expanded by 3.9 per cent year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026.
The figure was only marginally below the 4.0 per cent growth recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025, indicating that economic expansion has remained close to recent highs.
OPEC said the non-oil sector continued to provide the main support for growth, with activity across agriculture, manufacturing and other areas benefiting from improving domestic demand and business conditions.
The oil-producing group also identified steady crude oil production as an important factor supporting Nigeria’s economic outlook, coming after years of production challenges caused by oil theft, pipeline vandalism, underinvestment and operational disruptions.
Nigeria’s recent improvement in oil output has strengthened government revenue prospects and provided greater support for foreign-exchange earnings.
The report also noted that higher domestic refining capacity, including improved fuel supply from the Dangote refinery, should strengthen energy availability and reduce some of the pressure associated with dependence on imported petroleum products.
According to OPEC, inflationary pressures have also begun to soften, with headline inflation standing at 15.9 per cent year-on-year in both May and June.
The July Purchasing Managers’ Index also showed continued expansion in business activity, although firms continued to face higher costs for fuel and raw materials.
OPEC said the country’s near-term outlook remained positive, supported by oil production, progress on economic reforms, infrastructure investment and stronger business activity.
The assessment represents an improvement from the severe economic pressures that followed the removal of fuel subsidies and major foreign-exchange reforms, which contributed to a sharp rise in living costs and inflation.
However, the positive economic indicators do not necessarily mean that the benefits of the recovery are being felt equally across the country.
Millions of Nigerians continue to face high living costs, while food, transportation, housing and other essential expenses remain major pressures on household incomes.
OPEC’s assessment therefore presents a picture of an economy gradually stabilising at the macroeconomic level, even as households and businesses continue to adjust to the effects of earlier reforms.
The latest figures also suggest that the success of Nigeria’s economic recovery will depend increasingly on whether improved oil production and reforms can translate into stronger investment, employment and productive activity outside the oil sector.
For an economy that has historically depended heavily on crude oil revenue, the continued expansion of the non-oil sector will remain critical to achieving more sustainable growth.
OPEC said Nigeria’s overall outlook remains positive, but the country’s ability to maintain the momentum will depend on continued reforms, stronger infrastructure, increased productive capacity and sustained improvements in the business environment.
The challenge for policymakers, therefore, is no longer simply to restore economic growth, but to ensure that the recovery becomes broad-based enough to improve living standards for ordinary Nigerians.
